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Firefighter or architect: Everton’s dilemma

Everton are eight points off sixth-placed Liverpool. Only one Premier League team has conceded more goals than the Toffees. They sit in the bottom three without a permanent manager, and with a squad desperately short of form.

Farhad Moshiri’s extravagant summer spending has reaped little reward. Few of the senior players have performed to anywhere near the expected level, and hope of breaking into the closed top six club has all but vanished. Optimism has quickly degraded into boos at Goodison Park.

Defeat to Leicester made it three league defeats out of four. Add the almost inevitable Europa League group stage exit, and limp Carabao Cup defeat to that, and you see a club on the cusp of not only a poor season, but a disastrous one.

Real Relegation Risk

‘Too good to go down’ is not a thing. It is no more than a cliché. However, if it is ever relevant, it is for Everton. Their squad is far superior to the majority of the Premier League, and, even with issues balancing the team, they should be good enough to finish the season far from the bottom three.

The way the team are playing, though, Everton are set for a lengthy relegation battle. The defence is porous, the attack distinctly limited, and their supposed best players are not performing.

As a result, the decision to remove Ronald Koeman was an easy one. Koeman was showing no signs of change, and had made little to no progress this season. He looked to have set the foundations for a long tenure when they finished seventh earlier this year, but the manner of the performances this season made his position untenable.

Two Options

Picking his successor is a challenging process for the Everton hierarchy. Who they select will give a good indication to how pessimistic they are about this season. There is option one; bring in a steady, experienced manager who will be a short-term appointment to keep them safe. Then, option two; follow with the thinking that relegation is extremely unlikely and appoint a manager to carry the club into a new era.

Koeman was a meant to be the latter. Moshiri’s ambition still remains, but option two presents risk. It could be a disaster, and, it could, leave Everton having to make another kneejerk managerial appointment before the season is out.

Settling for a firefighter appointment would be an admission of the chasm between them and their expectation. Opting for Sam Allardyce, Tony Pulis or Martin O’Neill would signal an acknowledgement of the trouble they could be in. It would not, however, set a platform for a top four finish next season. While that may seem wildly unrealistic at this juncture anyway, it is worth remembering that is where Everton are working towards.

Safety-first

Allardyce has publicly stated that he would be interested in the job. It may take a bit of time, and it will not be pretty, but there’s next to no chance this Everton side are languishing in the bottom five in 2018 with Allardyce. The same goes for Pulis, O’Neill, Sean Dyche and several others who could be involved.

There is also the issue that Everton’s squad is loaded with midfielders, and particularly creators. None of the aforementioned managers are going to set up to benefit Davy Klaassen or Gylfi Sigurdsson. That is a lot of investment as good as surplus.

Option one is safe. It would be stabilising, and minimise risk. When it comes to the progression of the club next year and beyond, though, this would cause a delay. Allardyce is the most likely to take the job. He is the ultimate survivalist in the Premier League. The former West Ham manager would be hired because you know exactly what you will get, but with that come limitations.

Glamour Pick

Thomas Tuchel and Carlo Ancelotti are the two names that have made headlines. And, as two of the world’s best coaches, it’s enough to make a fan base giddy. Whether either would take a job like this at the moment is questionable.

If Everton are looking for a man to carry them into the top six next season, Tuchel has to be their target. The former Borussia Dortmund manager will quickly dissolve the beige football of Koeman, and the Toffees will be one of the best teams to watch within weeks. Tuchel, as with whoever takes the job, may struggle with the lack of pace and width, but that can be altered in January time.

The risk is greater than a familiar, pragmatic manager, though the reward is, too.

Perfect Compromise

The obvious conclusion is to find a third option. An option that gives long-term promise, but relative guarantee for the coming months. One man stands out above all: Marco Silva. The Watford manager is destined for a top six job, but he might be hesitant to leave his job at Vicarage Road for the chaos of Goodison.

Caretaker manager, David Unsworth, remains the bookies’ favourite to replace Koeman. Unsworth will have backers, but this job has come a bit soon in his career. Without any first team managerial experience, it would be a mammoth gamble to rest their Premier League fate on their former player.

The club is at a vital juncture. An ambitious appointment could swiftly reposition them for a top eight finish, and make this woeful start disappear from consciousness. Given their current mire, though, Allardyce’s reliability must be tempting. Evertonians want an architect to oversee the development of the club, but a firefighter might be a necessity to calm the growing flames.

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